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Old 8 Apr 2010, 03:03 AM   #241
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Beginning of the end? The numbers will never add up this route if in fact it is what it is production wise. This doesn't look good at all, and it's the 1st time in a way you're hinting failure. Man all that hardware etc... I wonder what the contingency plan is if any?

Funny now if this does not pan out DVD will actually win format war. I'm holding off on PS3 etc... Went through the web just now and as expected old posts regarding this whole issue. Pros n Cons for lasting and not lasting. Right now the cons seem to be edging out. Put that together w/all the alternative viewing available I really can't see it outright as a true replacement if that.

Now I have to start looking at alternatives like Netflix etc... Helluva hobby we have here that's for sure.
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Old 8 Apr 2010, 01:31 PM   #242
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They've failed at trying to raise prices, but I think this will allow them to succeed at replacing DVDs. If Blu-ray and DVD movies are at the same price, of course people will buy Blu-ray, and that's what's happening more and more, especially since they're practically giving away Blu-ray players with HDTVs (at least here in Australia, where many brands now come with free Blu-ray players by redemption).

Pricing was the last barrier, and I don't think there's a question as to whether Blu-ray will replace DVD or not. The only other question is, what can replace both Blu-ray *and* DVD. Net streaming is improving, but I don't think it's ready to become the primary home video outlet, and there will always be people that prefer discs (like myself, although if they can get video on demand working right for a good price, and with the option to burn your own discs from movies purchased, then I might change my mind).
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Old 8 Apr 2010, 02:11 PM   #243
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That's a fair assessment, but how are they going to work out the costs to make them at these prices? They exaggerated the production costs?

Yes the streaming w/VOD is just not there yet. Almost equate it to the Gaming server situation where you'll need a great connection and speed. Keeping it as well is another consideration as I accepted the fact also that a hard copy is best to have for safe keeping.
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Old 13 Apr 2010, 05:03 PM   #244
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Stats:

For the week ending 4th April 2010, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 12.15% vs 87.85%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $34.01 million
DVD sales total spending: $245.92 million

You can read the latest digital edition of HMM (April 12-18 Issue) with the above stats here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=3

Top 10:

The big release of the week was Sherlock Holmes. It outsold the second ranked title, also a new release, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, by nearly a 3:1 margin.

But that was it for new releases in the top 10, with the rest of the title mostly being recently released hits, the only surprise being the January release Pandorum coming in at 9th, mostly due to the price of this title being reduced (it is below $10 on Amazon at the moment). The lack of new releases contributed to the lower overall market share figure for Blu-ray, compared to last week's high (highest for 2010).

The complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold):

1. Sherlock Holmes
2. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
3. The Blind Side
4. Toy Story
5. Toy Story 2
6. The Twilight Saga: New Moon
7. The Princess and the Frog
8. 2012
9. Pandorum
10. The Hurt Locker

Market Share:

For the week's top release, Sherlock Holmes, it also managed to grab top spot on the market share charts, with 34.34% market share. It's solid, but not spectacular. It was interesting to not see any titles above this, as the usuals like Star Trek and District 9 didn't appear on the chart.

The week's second most popular title, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel, only got 7.86% in terms of market share, which is quite poor. This also helped to explain the rise in DVD market share for the week.

The complete Top 20 best sellers and Blu-ray market share tables can be seen here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...php?startid=11

Year to Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 5th April 2009 are as follows, after being adjusted to the new calculation method (see "Important Note" section in this post) used for the majority of 2009 (original stats can be seen here):

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stats for week ending 5th April 2009
Blu-ray vs DVD: 6.54% vs 93.46%

Blu-ray: $17.24 million
DVD: $246.24 million
DVD sales were practically even with the same time last year, recording only a 0.13% drop, but Blu-ray sales was up 97.31%. In money terms, DVD sales dropped a negligible $0.32 million, while Blu-ray revenue increased by $16.77 million, an overall gain of $16.45 million in combined revenue.

Blu-ray's market share grew by just under 86% year on year.

Next week's stats will include stats for Lord of the Rings: Trilogy Blu-ray. This is a Blu-ray exclusive, in that there's no equivalent new DVD release, and so this should help Blu-ray market share, and since studios have cleared the week of other new releases for fear of going up against this title, it should comfortably be number one, and given the popularity of the titles in question, should easily outsell the number two by at least 5:1, possibly even 10:1. Any other result and it can only point to Warner/New Line's failure to produce a proper Blu-ray package for these hit movies.

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Old 20 Apr 2010, 04:51 PM   #245
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Stats:

For the week ending 11th April 2010, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 13.4% vs 86.6%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $18.57 million
DVD sales total spending: $119.99 million

You can read the latest digital edition of HMM (April 19-24 Issue) with the above stats here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=1

Top 10:

Both Blu-ray sales and DVD sales recorded big drops compared to the previous week, and as you'll see later on, Blu-ray sales also managed to be less than the same time last year, which is very rare, but easily explained. The main reason for the sales drop is the post Easter drop, which happens every year. But because Easter occurs at different times every year, this can make week to week comparisons give strange results, such as a drop in sales for Blu-ray. In other words, we're comparing the post Easter hangover week with last year's Easter bump week. And next week, when we compare a normal week with last year's post Easter hangover week, we should see a huge increase for Blu-ray.

The other reason for the low sales was that there just wasn't any major new releases, as studios avoided the post Easter hangover week, and also one particular title. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy was released this week, and it appears most studios wanted avoid competing this particular title, although their fears might have been slightly misplaced.

While LOTR was the most popular title, it only managed to beat last week's top title, Sherlock Holmes, by a very small margin (less than 1.3 to 1), and will most likely be taken over by this title again next week. So what was expected to be one of the biggest releases on Blu-ray, probably second only to Star Wars, hasn't really performed well.

This is what I said about this title in last week's update:

Quote:
Next week's stats will include stats for Lord of the Rings: Trilogy Blu-ray. This is a Blu-ray exclusive, in that there's no equivalent new DVD release, and so this should help Blu-ray market share, and since studios have cleared the week of other new releases for fear of going up against this title, it should comfortably be number one, and given the popularity of the titles in question, should easily outsell the number two by at least 5:1, possibly even 10:1. Any other result and it can only point to Warner/New Line's failure to produce a proper Blu-ray package for these hit movies.
Most people will point to the fact that it is a catalog/library release, so it won't gather the same amount of interest as say Avatar, which should easily be the biggest title on Blu-ray this year and possible the biggest so far. But previous catalog releases, like Snow White, sold in huge numbers (although the fact that Snow White was an out of print title suggests many DVD buyers also bought this combo only release). Toy Story 1+2 just a couple of weeks ago also sold better, but again the post Easter week may have something to do with this.

Others will point to the fact that the trilogy edition only came with the theatrical version, not the extended edition, and with hardly any new extra features, and the extras not even on Blu-ray disc, that consumers were just not that interested. Certainly the comments on Amazon suggest a lot of people have boycotted this quite blatant double dip attempt by Warner, however others argue these may just be the very vocal minority.

Personally for me, what was a "must have" release has simply been made into a "good to have", and if there was concrete news that the extended editions were coming soon, then it turns into a "not needed" release. But whatever the case, Warner can't really lose because even if the theatrical trilogy doesn't sell, they can always rely on the extended editions to sell. And any money they can get from this current release, is really just a bonus, and there will always be people who will buy both versions. This is the principle behind double dipping, and the only thing the studio will lose is a bit of respect from movie fans, but that's not really new to them at all.

For the week's other new releases, Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans was in 5th place, and in 10th place was The Lord of the Rings: Original Animated Classic.

The complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold):

1. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy
2. Sherlock Holmes
3. The Blind Side
4. Toy Story
5. Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans
6. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
7. Toy Story 2
8. The Twilight Saga: New Moon
9. The Princess and the Frog
10. The Lord of the Rings: Original Animated Classic

Market Share:

As the LOTR is a Blu-ray only release (no equivalent DVD edition released at the same time), there's no market share figure on that. Of the other new releases, Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans managed 28.77%, which is fairly good for a title of this caliber, and the animated classic version of LOTR, which did have an equivalent DVD edition released at the same time, and it was the week's top ranked title in terms of market share, with 45.15%.

The complete Top 20 best sellers and Blu-ray market share tables can be seen here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=9

Year to Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 12th April 2009 are as follows, after being adjusted to the new calculation method (see "Important Note" section in this post) used for the majority of 2009 (original stats can be seen here):

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stats for week ending 12th April 2009
Blu-ray vs DVD: 6.19% vs 93.81%

Blu-ray: $19.56 million
DVD: $296.42 million
As explained earlier, both DVD sales and Blu-ray sales were down compared to the same week last year due to the post Easter hangover effect, which did not happen last year until the following week due to the different date of Easter.

DVD sales dropped 59.52% drop, while Blu-ray sales dropped 5.04%. In money terms, DVD sales dropped $176.43 million, while Blu-ray revenue decreased by $0.99 million, an overall loss of $177.42 million in combined revenue. The reverse of this will probably occur next week.

But market share figures should not be affected by seasonal factors, and so Blu-ray's market share grew by just over 116% year on year, which is even higher than normal, largely influenced by the number one title being a Blu-ray only release.

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Old 21 Apr 2010, 01:28 AM   #246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by admin View Post
Blu-ray sales total spending: $18.57 million

[...]

Blu-ray sales dropped 5.04%.

[...]

Blu-ray revenue decreased by $0.99 million

[...]

But market share figures should not be affected by seasonal factors, and so Blu-ray's market share grew by just over 116% year on year, which is even higher than normal, largely influenced by the number one title being a Blu-ray only release.
I beg Your pardon, but I'am not able to understand Your point.

If this year's BR selling value is clearly less, than it was in the last year, than how can You explain these figures as a growing trend?

Ok, I understood that the mentioned week was a special one, but I'am absolutely clueless on where did the mentioned 116% figure came from?!

Can You please explain it to me?

Thanks in advance

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Old 21 Apr 2010, 01:04 PM   #247
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The 116% figure comes from calculating the growth from this year's market share figure of 13.4% compared to last year's 6.19% - so ((13.4 - 6.19) / 6.19) * 100 = 116%

Blu-ray sales did drop (5.04%) compared to the same week last year due to the post Easter effect happening earlier this year than last, but also note that DVD sales dropped by even more (59.52%) compared to the same week, which is why the market share figure is up. If the revenue drop is related to the Easter effect, then both formats should drop, but the market share should remain fairly steady, since when people decide not to buy movies for one particular week, then they stop buying both Blu-ray and DVD, and the rate that they stop buying at can tell you which format is doing relatively better than the other.

But the current situation is that Blu-ray market share is growing (this week apart), while DVD is declining - that's been the trend for quite a while now. It's partly to be expected, since a new format will always have room to grow, and grow at the expense of the old format, but there's more to that since DVD sales was declining even without Blu-ray. There's also digital distribution, which is mostly available only in standard definition and so it is competing directly with DVD, not Blu-ray.

The market share figures are the ones worth watching, and it's also the only ones that I put out graphs for (see this blog post I made about the state of Blu-ray sales I wrote in October of last year, with updated stats up to December).

Also expect huge Blu-ray and DVD growth for next week (I think), since we'll be comparing a normal week in 2010 with the post Easter week in 2009.
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Old 21 Apr 2010, 03:45 PM   #248
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That Bad Lieutanant New Orleans is that the sequel to the original Bad Lieutenant w/Harvey Kietel? Funny because 2 of the neighborhood guys here where I'm at were in the Bad Lieutenant. They got asked to play the part where the nun gets raped. Wow what a way to get introduced by cameo! Lol...
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Old 22 Apr 2010, 05:27 AM   #249
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But the current situation is that Blu-ray market share is growing (this week apart), while DVD is declining - that's been the trend for quite a while now.
Thank You, now I understand Your point

But, IMHO, this market share is not a growing position, as this numbers were seen already in the last year, which were ASAP corrected to show up a growing trend... But, IMHO, even DVD struggles, I think, that the BR's growing cames from the international sales, and if we see the figures from this aspect, than it's not a real big growing, but mostly a struggling also.

I will attach an updated graph, which I was posted in the last year also.

IMHO, if we compare the last year's averages to this year's values, it doesn't look like a big difference:
Attached Thumbnails
Nielsen VideoScan/Home Media Magazine: Blu-ray/DVD/HD DVD Stats (Updated Weekly)-untitled.jpg  
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Old 22 Apr 2010, 02:46 PM   #250
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Here's my graph which compares Blu-ray market share at any week with the same week a year ago. It's only a few weeks why of a whole year worth of comparisons (so actually, two years worth of data, from 2008 to 2010).

Blu-ray did reach a high around October/November of last year, mainly thanks to Snow White (which was a combo, so even people wanting only the DVD version was counted as a "Blu-ray buyer"), and Star Trek (no funny business there, just solid Blu-ray sales). But that was holiday time spending, which is almost always higher than the rest of the year (which is also why studios tend to release hit movies at that time on DVD/Blu-ray) - the graph below show the same trend going into the holiday period of 2008 (that was largely due to The Dark Knight).

So comparing the same period from two years is the best way to see Blu-ray's growth. The average market share figure for May 2008 to April 2009 is 5.57%. The average for May 2009 to April 2010 is 11.99%. So market share went up by 6.42%, which suggests a growth of (6.42 / 5.57) * 100 = 115%, on average. The second graph I attached shows this growth more easily.

For the 2010 holiday period, we may yet see 30 or even 40% peaks in Blu-ray market share, but it all depends on what titles are available (we might even see it sooner, depending on how Avatar does at the end of this month).
Attached Thumbnails
Nielsen VideoScan/Home Media Magazine: Blu-ray/DVD/HD DVD Stats (Updated Weekly)-br_market_share.png   Nielsen VideoScan/Home Media Magazine: Blu-ray/DVD/HD DVD Stats (Updated Weekly)-br_growth.png  
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Old 24 Apr 2010, 09:18 AM   #251
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Blu-ray's here. Case closed. I dismissed it entirely because of the prices and nothing to do with Sony. Now that Blu-rays are just as cheap and even cheaper for some titles there's no reason to avoid it. Common sense really. Though I would say that this definitely is for HDTV playback as Blu-ray drives etc... might still have the jury on them.

I'm not 100% on this, but it hasn't been too long yet for their standardization.

Btw, I could not and still today get into remotely wanting to watch Avatar. Something about those characters just never moved me. Funny how certain flics appeal to different viewers.
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Old 27 Apr 2010, 05:42 PM   #252
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Stats:

For the week ending 18th April 2010, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 12.09% vs 87.91%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $15.77 million
DVD sales total spending: $114.72 million

You can read the latest digital edition of HMM (April 26 - May 24 Issue) with the above stats here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=1

Top 10:

While the post Easter effect is over, the pre-Avatar-calm-before-storm effect is in place, as new box office hit releases again was practically non existent as studios do not want to put anything up against Avatar, which based on early reports, is outselling every other Blu-ray movie ever released before, and may have even broken all time sales records for a single Blu-ray title, outselling some movies that have been on the market for years, in a only a couple of days. Anyway, more on Avatar next week.

For this week, the top 10 shows a distinct lack of new releases, and so even without the post Easter effect in play, Blu-ray sales actually dropped again compared to the usually poor post Easter week last week. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy fell to 5th place just a week after being released, outsold by other recently released titles.

Apollo 13 was the only new release in the top 10, managing a respectable 7th place, selling only slightly less copies than the LOTR trilogy.

There's almost nothing else to talk about this week, so here's the complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold):

1. Sherlock Holmes
2. The Hurt Locker
3. Toy Story
4. The Blind Side
5. The Lord of the Rings Trilogy
6. Toy Story 2
7. Apollo 13
8. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel
9. 2012
10. The Princess and the Frog

Market Share:

No new releases means nothing really to talk about market share wise either. Apollo 13 wasn't in the top 10, although I'm not sure if this counts as a concurrent release or not since the Blu-ray version is the 15th anniversary edition, but there's no 15th anniversary edition for DVD (just the old editions, the 2-disc version of which is retailing for only $2 less than the new Blu-ray edition). Zombieland was the week's highest ranked title by market share, getting 52.23%. The Hurt Locker also went over 50%, with a recent price drop perhaps being responsible for both the high market share number and its return to the number 2 spot in the top 10 sales charts as well.

Avatar's market share has been estimated at the high 40's, or even higher, which might be enough to get the overall Blu-ray market share over 30% for the first time.

The complete Top 20 best sellers and Blu-ray market share tables can be seen here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...php?startid=13

Year to Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 19th April 2009 are as follows, after being adjusted to the new calculation method (see "Important Note" section in this post) used for the majority of 2009 (original stats can be seen here):

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stats for week ending 19th April 2009
Blu-ray vs DVD: 7.36% vs 92.46%

Blu-ray: $10.79 million
DVD: $135.80 million
Last year's post Easter effect meets this year's pre Avatar effect, with Blu-ray coming out of it better than DVDs.

DVD sales dropped 15.52%, while Blu-ray sales increased by 46.20%. In money terms, DVD sales dropped $21.08 million, while Blu-ray revenue increased by $4.98 million, an overall loss of $16.1 million in combined revenue. Both DVD and Blu-ray figures should be way up next week.

Blu-ray's market share grew by just over 64% year on year.
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Old 4 May 2010, 04:27 PM   #253
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Stats:

For the week ending 25th April 2010, here are the stats:

Percentage of revenue:
Blu-ray vs DVD: 22.37% vs 77.63%

Blu-ray sales total spending: $66.57 million
DVD sales total spending: $231.05 million

You can read the latest digital edition of HMM (May 3 - 9 Issue) with the above stats here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques....php?startid=3

Top 10:

Avatar

That's all you really need to know about this week. It outsold the number two most popular Blu-ray title by just under 58:1 (that's right, for every 1 copy of Crazy Heart sold, Avatar sold 57 more copies - and only a "Crazy" movie would go up against Avatar this week).

The Lovely Bones was also brave enough to be released in the same week as Avatar, and it earned 4th place, and was only outsold by Avatar by a 107:1 margin. Minority Report representing catalogue releases in the top 10 at 7th place, tied with Toy Story 2, both outsold by Avatar by just under a 143:1 margin.

So the post Easter, pre Avatar effect is gone, and both Blu-ray and DVD sales were up heavily against the same time last year. Blu-ray's market share is at an all time record of 22.37%, but more on that later.

Here's the complete top 10 chart is below (new releases in bold):

1. Avatar
2. Crazy Heart
3. Sherlock Holmes
4. The Lovely Bones
5. Toy Story
6. The Blind Side
7 (tied). Minority Report
7 (tied). Toy Story 2
9. 2012
10. X-Men Origins: Wolverine

Market Share:

Avatar recorded a first week Blu-ray market share of 48.8%, which should be the best first week figures since District 9 and Star Trek. Now, I've mentioned the combo effect, in that the Avatar Blu-ray release was a combo, which was only $4 more than the DVD only version, making it good value for all concerned. I have suggested, and some others have too, that this helps Blu-ray as some DVD buyers may be paying for the extra $4 to buy the combo to future proof their purchase. Others argue that with ever dropping movie prices, there's no need to do that and buyers aren't doing it in large numbers to affect the market share stats (although the Avatar Blu-ray version will not drop to $4, so there's no logic to buying the DVD version if you think that you'll ever want Avatar on Blu-ray). But had the combo version being a Blu-ray only edition, would some consumers have purchased both this and the DVD only version so they would have a copy of the movie for both the home theater, and perhaps for the bedroom or on the go?

Or perhaps this was the perfect title to entice the sizable percentage of PS3 users that didn't really care too much about Blu-ray before. The relatively low $19.99 pricing for the combo version also helped.

Whatever the reason, combos work, and expect studios to release more of them. We're still in a transitional phase between going from DVD to Blu-ray, and having a package with both versions make sense.

Blu-ray's overall market share for the week rose to a record 22.37%, beating the previous record of 21.18% set by the week District 9 was released.

Only the top 10 market share charts were published, and so none of the other new releases made it to the top 10, but Crazy Heart got 17% and The Lovely Bones was at 16%. The relatively low market share figures for these other new releases, probably helped to soften the overall Blu-ray market share, but if you count the market share for the top 20 titles, Blu-ray market share was over 30%.

And the LOTR Trilogy Blu-ray slipped outside of the top 10 as expected.

The complete Top 20 best sellers and Blu-ray market share tables can be seen here:

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...php?startid=13

Year to Year Comparison

The stats for the week ending 26th April 2009 (click to see analysis) are as follows. We're finally reached the time last year where the new HMM calculation method was introduced, so now comparing the published figures from this year and last will be comparing apples to apples. See "Important Note" section in this post) to see why previous figures had to be adjuted before being compared (but now no longer necessary).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stats for week ending 26th April 2009
Blu-ray vs DVD: 10.5% vs 89.5%

Blu-ray: $19.42 million
DVD: $165.58 million
DVD sales increased 39.54%, while Blu-ray sales increased by 242.79%. In money terms, DVD sales increased by $65.47 million, while Blu-ray revenue increased by $47.15 million, an overall gain of $112.62 million in combined revenue.

Blu-ray's market share grew by just over 113% year on year.

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Old 9 May 2010, 12:21 PM   #254
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The graphs and data you posted on the Main site are interesting, and do show Blu-ray's increased market share growth. However this growth only shows how big releases influenced market share even though some individual titles were also released on Blu-ray. It's noted that Blu-ray can't compete w/DVDs yet on all releases and that when this happens Blu-ray will be the dominant home video format.

I'm curious to see this happen. It will not only show that Blu-ray will take over but it will definitely set aside any individual preferences for purchasing Blu-ray movies. In other words did the market share growth depict viewers choices in reference to graphics and side effects than the actual picture itself? There's a world of difference lets say from viewing Avatar, Ironman, Transformers etc.. on Blu-ray than any others w/out such graphical content.

For example I watch Unforgiven all the time when I really want some great Western Clint action. I don't see how watching it on Blu-ray would make me more inclined to view it more often than i do already. Now Ironman and the aboveforementioned would definitely impact my viewing them even more than I would normally do on DVD.

So this is my take on the trend at this point. Together with price reduction as well. Would I go out and buy the Blu-ray version of Unforgiven if it's out there? Idk if I would iykwim.
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Old 9 May 2010, 01:28 PM   #255
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Here a link to that Blu-ray analysis blog post:

http://www.digital-digest.com/blog/D...play-may-2010/

As for Unforgiven, and other classic movies, I think these can look stunning on Blu-ray, probably the best they've ever been, and the effect is usually more noticeable than say a recent movie, which all look nice and clean and sharp, even on DVD. As long as studios put in the effort to properly remaster the films, they will look great on Blu-ray, and you will spot an amazing amount of differences if you compare it to the DVD version. Some people may not like the grain or color differences compared to recent movies, but that's how these classic films were filmed and how they were meant to be seen.

Here's the review of Unforgiven on Blu-ray, with screen captures, so you can judge for yourself:

http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/Unforg...ray-Review/90/

Or The Godfather restorations:

http://www.blu-ray.com/movies/The-Go...y-Review/7734/

It's just a shame they didn't put the same amount of effort into Lord of the Rings movies, as otherwise it would be must buy.
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