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A very optimistic look at Blu-ray uptake versus DVD uptake during the first few years of both formats.
There is only one problem with the above analysis, in that much of the figures are "projected" based on current figures, which are heavily tilted towards early adopter type users. DVD's start was rather sluggish as well (I remember Blockbusters only having 8 movies to rent at one stage, and that's when I was already able to buy an affordable DVD-ROM drive for my PC), and it faced a much tougher struggle as it was new technology that people had no familiarity with. Blu-ray, on the other hand, is basically an upgrade to DVDs, which people are familiar with.
But why DVD became a huge success was largely due to the exponential growth when the mainstream public took to it (when prices started dropping) - it's hard to say whether Blu-ray will have the same effect, because polling confirms that the mainstream users don't really care for Blu-ray/HD one way or the other at the moment (that may change when HD transmission becomes mandatory).
And of course, the biggest factor was that DVDs didn't have a real competitor in the home video market (Laserdisc and VHS sell-through releases weren't mainstream). Blu-ray does, and its competitor just happens to be the most successful video format ever with a very high satisfaction rating from consumers (price, quality).
I think what will happen is a gradual uptake as more and more DVD users become Blu-ray users. There will still be a large group of users that won't upgrade, and an even larger group that won't re-buy movies they already have on DVD. So both formats will co-exist for the time being until pure digital movie distribution (without the need for optical media) become a reality. Blu-ray will become the "premium" choice for movies, whereas DVD is the budget choice and will remain at current pricing levels, hence give studios increased income without sacrificing DVD sales.